ISA World Masters Surfing Championship Forecast – Updated July 13

Figure 1. Storm moving out from under New Zealand yesterday and today that looks to set up stronger swell for the tail end of the contest. Stay tuned!

Brief Overview:  Mainly fun sized southern hemi energy is expected for Nicaragua over the next several days. A slight increase in S/SSW swell is expected by the end of the weekend. This eases into next week as new small but long period SW groundswell moves in. Minor W/WNW swell from Tropical Cyclones Emilia and Fabio is expected for the next several days as well. Stronger SSW groundswell is lining up for the end of the event. Offshores are expected through most of the contest.

Forecast Outlook

SATURDAY 14th
Swell/Surf: Small S/SSW groundswell and minor W swell mix. Surf is 2-3-4’ (thigh-chest high) with sets around shoulder to head high during favorable tides.
Wind: ENE 6-15kts. Occasional higher gusts during the morning and early afternoon hours.

SUNDAY 15th
Swell/Surf:  S/SSW swell pulses up a touch while mixing with lingering small W energy. Surf is 4-5’ (shoulder to head high) surf with 6’ sets (1’ overhead).
Wind: ENE 5-14kts.

MONDAY 16th
Swell/Surf: Mix of fading S/SSW swell and new, small but long period SW swell. Minor W energy from tropical sources continues. Surf is 3-5’ (waist to head high). Sets slightly overhead during best tides.
Wind: ENE 7-16kts. Stronger gusts over the late morning/early afternoon hours possible, then easing late day.

Tuesday 17th
Swell/Surf: Easing S swell and rising small but long period SW groundswell. Surf is 3-5’ (waist to head high). Slightly overhead sets especially late.
Wind:  ENE 6-15kts. Occasional higher gusts during the morning and early afternoon hours.

WEDNESDAY 18th
Swell/Surf: Modest SW groundswell continues. Surf is 3-5’ (waist to head high) with slightly overhead sets.
Wind:  ENE 6-15kts. Occasional higher gusts during the morning and early afternoon hours.

Swell/Surf Outlook: 
We are still looking at mainly a modest mix of overlapping southern hemi swells over the next 24hrs or so. That leaves mainly thigh-waist-chest high surf into Saturday with a few slightly higher sets.

Beyond that, we are expecting a modest increase in surf heights by Sunday and into early/mid next week thanks to a couple of recent storms/fetches we were watching in the South Pacific. This will be a mix of S/SSW and SW swells from a variety of sources, though the primary energy is initially expected to be between 195-180 degrees thanks to a recent and fairly close proximity system in the SE Pacific. This bumps surf into the chest to head high range on Sunday with sets running a foot or so overhead. This swell eases a notch going into early next week, but its remains will mix with a couple of smaller but longer period, overlapping SW swells to keep surf in the waist-head high zone on average for next Monday through Thursday. Again, we expect some slightly overhead sets during favorable tides.

Further out, the above swells back off into next Friday July 20th leaving a bit smaller but still plenty rideable/fun surf then. However, we are currently watching a stronger storm move out from under New Zealand now. This storm has some strong gale to storm force winds aimed at Central America, and we also just got satellite confirmation that it is producing seas around 40 ft that LOLA is handling fairly well. This should lead to a stronger run of southern  hemisphere swell starting next weekend and continuing into the following week after the contest ends (July 21-27). Please stay tuned as we continue to track these still active storms/swells. However, our confidence is increasing that we will see a bit stronger surf by the end of next weekend thanks to the confirmed storm under New Zealand now. This pulse looks to be focused in the 215-200 directional band with fairly high periods (16-20s). Given the very large decay distance it likely won’t be a huge swell but should be the strongest of the contest. Please stay tuned as we iron out the details.

WIND/WEATHER – Primarily light to moderate offshore ENE winds are expected over the next several days, mostly in the 5-15kt zone. Occasional higher gusts are possible especially over the late morning and early afternoon afternoons before winds diminish a bit late in the day. While its hard to rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm this time of year in the tropics, current indications are that rain chances will be fairly low with the offshore wind pattern that has been in place. As such, we expect rain chances to be in the 20-30% range through the period. Any showers that pop up will be capable of temporarily impacting winds and location conditions.

Next Update: Monday, July 16th