ISA World Masters Surfing Championship Forecast – Updated July 16

Brief Overview: Mainly fun sized southern hemi energy is expected for Nicaragua over the next few days. The S/SSW swell from the weekend will ease through midweek as a new small, but longer period SW swell gradually fills in. Minor W/WNW energy from Tropical Cyclone Fabio is also expected through the middle of the week. Stronger SW groundswell is lining up for the end of the event. Offshores are expected through most of the contest.

Forecast Outlook 

TUESDAY 17th
Swell/Surf: Fading S swell mixes with new small, but longer period SW swell and minor W energy to produce 3-4’ (waist to chest high) surf with head high ranged sets during best tides.
Wind: ENE 5-13kts. Occasional higher gusts during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

WEDNESDAY 18th
Swell/Surf: Dominant SW groundswell mixes with small, underlying S and W swells to produce 3-5’ (waist to head high) surf. Slightly overhead sets during best tides.
Wind: ENE 5-13kts. Occasional higher gusts during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

THURSDAY 19th
Swell/Surf: Dominant SW swell continues to produce 3-5’ (waist-head high) surf. Slightly overhead sets during best tides.
Wind: ENE 9-16kts. Stronger gusts over the late morning/early afternoon hours possible, then easing late day.

FRIDAY 20th
Swell/Surf: Southern hemi mix in the 3-4’ range (waist to chest high). Shoulder to head high sets during best tides.
Wind: ENE 7-15kts. Occasional higher gusts during the morning and early afternoon hours.

SATURDAY 21st
Swell/Surf: Rising SW swell with 4-5’ (shoulder to head high) surf. 1-2’ overhead sets developing late.
Wind: ENE 6-15kts.

SUNDAY 22nd
Swell/Surf: Stronger SW swell with 5-7’ surf (head to 2’ overhead). Developing well overhead sets (~8’ faces) through the day, strongest late.
Wind: ENE 5-13kts.

Forecast Discussion:
Swell/Surf: We are expecting a mix of fading, short-mid period S (195-180) and rising, small but longer period SW (220-210) swell over the next several days. This leaves lots of waist-shoulder high surf for Tuesday through Thursday. Head to slightly overhead sets are expected during best tides, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Mainly small/fun sized southern hemi mix is expected to continue into Friday.

Further out, we are still expecting a stronger pulse of SW (220-205) swell to fill in as we move through the end of the weekend, thanks to a recent strong storm that pushed out from under New Zealand late last week. This swell looks good for head to overhead surf, with well overhead sets expected to develop during Sunday. Stay tuned as we continue to track this swell through the Pacific.

Wind/Weather: Primarily light to moderate offshore ENE winds are expected over the next several days, mostly in the 5-15kt zone except slightly stronger over Thursday and Friday. Occasional higher gusts are possible especially during the late morning and early afternoon afternoons before winds diminish a bit late in the day. While its hard to rule out a passing shower and thunderstorm this time of year in the tropics, current indications are that rain chances will remain fairly low with the offshore wind pattern that has been in place. As such, we expect rain chances to be in the 20-30% range through the period. Any showers that pop up will be capable of temporarily impacting winds and surf conditions.

Next Update: Friday, July 20th